Pig outlook: Lean hog futures bulls achieve late-week momentum

October lean hog futures on Wednesday posted forged good points and hit a three-week excessive because the near-term technical posture advanced. Essentially, seasonal money hog weak point is bearish. The newest CME lean hog index is down every other $1.74 to $90.67, marking the largest day-to-day decline since costs began their seasonal drop in past due July. Throughout that span, the money index has fallen $15.33. 

Bullish components for the hog marketplace come with the weekly document on Iowa-southern Minnesota pig gross sales and weights confirmed ultimate week’s reasonable marketplace hog weight dropped 4.0 kilos from the week previous to 274.3 lbs. according to head. The drop most probably mirrored ultimate week’s excessive warmth over the area however might also point out the trade was once pulling hogs forward. The pointy weight drop and implication of diminished market-ready provides might installed a backside within the money hog marketplace quickly.

Weekly USDA export gross sales for US red meat

Red meat: Internet US gross sales of 36,900 MT for 2023 have been up 12 % from the former week and 45 % from the prior 4-week reasonable. Will increase have been essentially for Mexico (12,000 MT, together with decreases of 500 MT), China (7,800 MT), South Korea (5,500 MT, together with decreases of 600 MT), Japan (4,200 MT, together with decreases of 300 MT), and Canada (1,900 MT, together with decreases of one,200 MT). Overall internet gross sales of 400 MT for 2024 have been for Japan. Exports of 31,300 MT have been up 24 % from the former week and 16 % from the prior 4-week reasonable. The locations have been essentially to Mexico (13,000 MT), Japan (4,400 MT), China (3,000 MT), South Korea (2,700 MT), and Canada (2,700 MT).

USDA: United States and Canadian Hog Stock Down Rather

USDA experiences United States and Canadian stock of all hogs and pigs for June 2023 was once 86.2 million head. This was once fairly not up to June 2022 and down 2 % from June 2021. The breeding stock, at 7.39 million head, was once fairly not up to ultimate yr and down 1 % from 2021. Marketplace hog stock, at 78.8 million head, was once fairly not up to ultimate yr and down 2 % from 2021. The semi-annual pig crop, at 80.0 million head, was once up 1 % from 2022 however down 1 % from 2021. Sows farrowing right through this era totaled 7.06 million head, down 1 % from ultimate yr and down 2 % from 2021.

United States stock of all hogs and pigs on June 1, 2023 was once 72.4 million head. This was once up fairly from June 1, 2022 however down 1 % from March 1, 2023. The breeding stock, at 6.15 million head, was once down fairly from ultimate yr, however up 1 % from the former quarter. Marketplace hog stock, at 66.2 million head, was once up fairly from ultimate yr, however down 1 % from ultimate quarter. The pig crop, at 32.9 million head, was once up 1 % from 2022 however down 1 % from 2021. Sows farrowing right through this era totaled 2.90 million head, down 2 % from 2022 and down 5 % from 2021.

Canadian stock of all hogs and pigs on July 1, 2023 was once 13.8 million head. This was once down 1 % from July 1, 2022 and down 4 % from July 1, 2021. The breeding stock, at 1.24 million head, was once down fairly from ultimate yr and down 2 % from 2021. Marketplace hog stock, at 12.5 million head, was once down 1 % from ultimate yr and down 4 % from 2021. The semi-annual pig crop, at 15.0 million head, was once up 1 % from 2022, however down 2 % from 2021. Sows farrowing right through this era totaled 1.25 million head, up 1 % from ultimate yr, however down 2 % from 2021.

FSA updates LIP fee fee for Midwest cattle manufacturers

USDA’s Farm Provider Company (FSA) is updating the Farm animals Indemnity Program (LIP) fee fee to give a boost to cattle manufacturers within the Midwest who’ve misplaced farm animals to the intense warmth and humidity skilled this summer season. To assist indemnify ranchers to replicate a pattern against increased farm animals weights in feedlots, the 2023 LIP fee fee for red meat calves over 800 lbs. will build up from $1244 according to head to $1618. 

LIP supplies advantages to cattle house owners and a few contract growers for cattle deaths exceeding standard mortality from eligible opposed climate occasions, positive predation losses and diminished gross sales costs because of harm from an eligible loss. Indemnity bills are made at a fee of 75% of the prior yr’s reasonable truthful marketplace price of the cattle. The up to date LIP fee fee is valuable instantly and might be carried out retroactively beginning Jan.1, 2023, for all eligible reasons of loss together with over the top warmth, twister, wintry weather storms and different qualifying opposed climate. 

Manufacturers who’ve already gained LIP bills for 2023 losses will obtain an extra fee, if appropriate, commensurate with this up to date fee.

China’s sow herd inches decrease in July

China’s sow herd in July fell 0.6% towards the prior month to 42.71 million head, ag ministry knowledge confirmed. The sow herd was once additionally 0.6% smaller than ultimate yr. Hog slaughter in July jumped 26.7% from ultimate yr.

The following week’s most probably high-low worth buying and selling levels:

October lean hog futures–$77.75 to $86.75 and with a sideways bias

December soybean meal futures–$400.00 to $425.00, and with a sideways-higher bias

December corn futures–$4.73 1/2 to $5.00 and a sideways bias

Newest analytical day-to-day charts lean hog, soybean meal and corn futures