The USDA launched there September 1 quarterly Hogs and Pigs Record ultimate Thursday.
If lean hog futures are any indication of marketplace response of the USDA document, you want to just have a look at lean hog futures ultimate Friday with October to February falling over $3.
Much less sows, extra marketplace hogs. The 268,000 extra marketplace hogs can be about 10,000 extra marketplace hogs per week over the following six months or 2,000 an afternoon.
Muddle dimension took a large soar within the document June – August this 12 months 11.61, ultimate 12 months identical time 11.13 (+4%). In our opinion the muddle dimension build up and extra marketplace hogs may also be most commonly as a consequence of decrease PRRS occurrence within the U.S. sow herd and wean to complete. In keeping with the knowledge from the U.S. Swine Reporting Device. We quote from September Record, “Since 2003 PRRS virus achieves the traditionally lowest submission within the wean to marketplace class in July and August. In sow farms the present share of certain admissions (16.28%) is the bottom since October 2017 (13.53%). The detection could also be the bottom (16.56%) since October 2014 (6.13%) within the total class.”
Just right information much less PRRS. The problem is from the historic information PRRS normally jumps seasonally in October via April.
- The USDA experiences the sow herd down 1% however farrowing intentions September – November down 5%. 1% much less sows however 5% much less farrowings?
In June – August quarter this 12 months USDA has precise farrowings 2,949,000 in comparison to 3,092,000 down 4%. The 4% decline was once from in line with USDA document the similar collection of sows because the 12 months sooner than June 1, 2023 – 6,146 sows, 2022 – 6,168 sows.
To us it doesn’t upload up. Why would farrowings be down 4-5% when sow herd the similar or -1%? We don’t imagine manufacturers are preserving sows and now not breeding them. This sort of numbers are fallacious? Is the sow herd down greater than 1%? Why would muddle dimension move up however farrowing price move down?
- September Record signifies Illinois larger its breeding herd from 590,000 to 670,000 (+80,000) within the ultimate 12 months (+14%). On the identical time Iowa lowered from 930,000 to 880,000 (-50,000) or -5%. It might be great if shall we get comments from Illinois readers the place they believe an additional 80,000 sows were given put within the ultimate 12 months?
Abstract
USDA experiences a couple of much less sows. Similar collection of marketplace hogs. Larger litters. Much less Farrowings. Much less PRRS. We imagine the less farrowings precise ultimate quarter and projected this quarter most certainly signifies the breeding herd is smaller than being reported. We think power liquidation of breeding herd as present projections over the following six months point out additional losses farrow to complete.
Being certain by means of nature we proceed to look ongoing decrease ranges of Pink Meat and Poultry manufacturing. Beef Exports proceed to run 8% upper 12 months over 12 months. Much less general provide will probably be worth supportive, and we predict lean hog futures to be higher than lean hog futures recently venture. Feed prices additionally will probably be decrease. Closing Friday U.S. Nationwide Corn worth $4.49 a bushel. The bottom worth since January 2021. It’s been a continual difficult move. No longer a trade for faint hearted.