Genesus’ Jim Lengthy stocks insights into the North American swine trade
3 October 2023
3 minute learn
The USDA launched their September 1 quarterly Hogs and Pigs Record
closing Thursday.
If lean hog futures are any indication of marketplace response of the
USDA document, you want to simply take a look at lean hog futures closing Friday with October
to February falling over $3.
Much less sows, extra marketplace hogs. The 268,000 extra marketplace hogs can be about 10,000 extra marketplace hogs per week over the following six months or 2,000 an afternoon.
Muddle dimension took a large bounce within the document June – August this 12 months 11.61, closing 12 months similar time 11.13 (+4%). In our opinion the muddle dimension building up and extra marketplace hogs may also be most commonly due to decrease PRRS occurrence within the U.S. sow herd and wean to complete. In step with the knowledge from the U.S. Swine Reporting Device. We quote from September Record, “Since 2003 PRRS virus achieves the traditionally lowest submission within the wean to marketplace class in July and August. In sow farms the present share of sure admissions (16.28%) is the bottom since October 2017 (13.53%). The detection could also be the bottom (16.56%) since October 2014 (6.13%) within the general class.”
Excellent information much less PRRS. The problem is from the ancient information PRRS most often jumps seasonally in October via April.
- The USDA stories the sow herd down 1% however farrowing intentions September – November down 5%. 1% much less sows however 5% much less farrowings?
In June – August quarter this 12 months USDA has precise farrowings 2,949,000 in comparison to 3,092,000 down 4%. The 4% decline used to be from in line with USDA document the similar collection of sows because the 12 months prior to June 1, 2023 – 6,146 sows, 2022 – 6,168 sows.
To us it doesn’t upload up. Why would farrowings be down 4-5% when sow herd the similar or -1%? We don’t consider manufacturers are maintaining sows and no longer breeding them. Any such numbers are improper? Is the sow herd down greater than 1%? Why would muddle dimension pass up however farrowing price pass down?
- September Record signifies Illinois larger its breeding herd from 590,000 to 670,000 (+80,000) within the closing 12 months (+14%). On the similar time Iowa lowered from 930,000 to 880,000 (-50,000) or -5%. It might be great if shall we get comments from Illinois readers the place they believe an additional 80,000 sows were given put within the closing 12 months?
Abstract
USDA stories a couple of much less sows. Similar collection of marketplace hogs. Larger litters. Much less Farrowings. Much less PRRS. We consider the less farrowings precise closing quarter and projected this quarter most likely signifies the breeding herd is smaller than being reported. We predict persistent liquidation of breeding herd as present projections over the following six months point out additional losses farrow to complete.
Being sure via nature we proceed to look ongoing decrease ranges of Crimson Meat and Poultry manufacturing. Red meat Exports proceed to run 8% upper 12 months over 12 months. Much less general provide can be value supportive, and we think lean hog futures to be higher than lean hog futures lately undertaking. Feed prices additionally can be decrease. Closing Friday U.S. Nationwide Corn value $4.49 a bushel. The bottom value since January 2021. It is been a continual difficult pass. No longer a trade for faint hearted.