Federally-inspected hog slaughter numbers up 5%
22 March 2024
2 minute learn
The tempo of US hog slaughter used to be upper than anticipated in February as processors bid up hog costs according to wholesalers’ larger call for for beef, in step with the newest USDA ERS Cattle, Dairy and Poultry Outlook record.
February ended with estimated federally inspected hog slaughter numbers simply shy of eleven million head, nearly 5% upper than a yr in the past after accounting for the month’s further slaughter day. The February are living identical worth of 51-52% lean hogs averaged $55.24 in line with cwt, 1.8% upper than a yr in the past.
In a similar fashion, processors and wholesalers bought about 2.4 billion kilos of beef—nearly 5% greater than in February 2023—at estimated beef carcass cutout values of $89.14 in line with cwt, 8.3% upper than a yr in the past. Higher wholesale call for—upper volumes of beef bought at upper costs—most likely supplied enough margin for processors to pay upper costs for greater numbers of hogs.
First-quarter beef manufacturing is raised about 30 million kilos to nearly 7.2 billion kilos, 1.3% more than a yr in the past. It’s most likely that one of the crucial hogs supplying the extra manufacturing had been packer-sold and packer-owned hogs, whose less than year-earlier weights─in spite of decrease feed prices this yr—counsel that they had been pulled ahead according to larger beef call for. It’s notable that producer-owned hog weights this yr are, up to now, above year-ago ranges, suggesting an unanticipated run-up in wholesale call for via processors.
Call for for hogs in 2024 is anticipated to be maintained via persevered power in beef call for. Carcass cutout values for January and February counsel that whilst probably not to reach 2021– 22 ranges, values will have to development above the ones of 2023. Wholesale beef call for is anticipated to be supported via top relative retail costs of beef substitutes, in most cases top grocery costs in home markets, and a continued-strong pull from export markets as Ecu exporters grow to be much less of a presence, in particular in Asian markets because of decrease EU beef manufacturing and upper costs.
First-quarter costs of 51–52% are living identical lean hogs are anticipated to moderate $55 in line with cwt, about equivalent to the similar length remaining yr. 2d-quarter costs are raised to $65 in line with cwt, nearly 15% above the similar length remaining yr. 3rd-quarter hog costs are raised $1 from remaining month’s forecast to $67 in line with cwt, greater than 3 % less than the 3rd quarter of 2023.
The fourth-quarter forecast stays $56 in line with cwt, nearly 5% more than a yr previous. The revised forecasts moderate to $61, nearly 4% upper than the typical for 2023.