Farm animals analyst Jim Wyckoff stories on pig information from around the world
29 March 2024
3 minute learn
June lean hog futures stay in a three-month-old uptrend at the day by day bar chart. Costs are close to the hot 15-month highs and bulls are preserving their near-term technical merit. Basically, the United States money hog and wholesale beef markets proceed to turn energy. The CME newest money hog index quote is $83.69. Historical past suggests there’s an inclination for early-April hog and beef value weak point.
Thursday afternoon’s quarterly USDA Hogs & Pigs document may just affect money and futures costs as it’ll give you the perfect estimate of hog provides over the approaching months. Of key pastime is whether or not the slaughter discounts noticed all through the primary two weeks March signaled a discount in long term hog provides. Analysts be expecting the hogs and pigs document to turn the U.S. hog herd was once just about the similar measurement as year-ago at 74.136 million head as of March 1. The breeding herd is predicted to be down 3.5%, whilst the marketplace hog stock is predicted to be up 0.3% from final yr. The iciness pig crop is predicted to be up 1.4% amid a three.4% soar in pigs according to muddle. Spring and summer season farrowing intentions are expected to be down 2.3% and a couple of.2%, respectively.
China’s hog herd nonetheless too large regardless of discounts
China’s hog herd will stay in surplus this yr, regardless of new govt objectives to tame oversupply. Previous this month, Beijing adjusted the nationwide goal for standard retention of breeding sows to 39 million head from 41 million and issued new laws to keep watch over the rustic’s pig manufacturing capability. However an increasing number of productive sows and a reluctance in hog farms to destock will stay herd measurement at excessive ranges and costs low. Shanghai JC Intelligence Co. stated the sow herd wishes to say no to about 35 million head. It forecasts China’s 2024 pig manufacturing at 717 million head, down 10 million head (1.4%) from final yr.
China’s sow herd, hog slaughter shrinks in February
China had 40.42 million sows on the finish of February, down 0.6% from January and six.9% lower than final yr, the ag ministry stated. The collection of pigs slaughtered in February fell 6.9% from final yr to 21.04 million head, a 43.5% drop from January.
February US frozen meat shares sign sturdy call for
USDA’s Chilly Garage Document confirmed frozen beef shares declined contra-seasonally all through February, whilst pork inventories fell greater than reasonable. Pork inventories on the finish of February totaled 442.8 million lbs., down 28.5 million lbs. from January. The five-year reasonable was once a 12.9-million-lb. decline all through the month. Pork inventories dropped 58.0 million lbs. (11.6%) from year-ago and have been 59.8 million lbs. (11.9%) lower than the five-year reasonable. Beef shares dropped 6.8 million lbs. all through February to 456.5 million lbs., while the five-year reasonable was once a 29.7-million-lb. building up for the month. Beef inventories fell 65.1 million lbs. (12.5%) from February 2023 and have been 93.0 million lbs. (16.9%) lower than the five-year reasonable.
The following week’s most probably high-low value buying and selling levels:
June lean hog futures–$98.625 to 105.00 and with a sideways-higher bias
Would possibly soybean meal futures–$329.30 to $350.00, and with a sideways bias
Would possibly corn futures–$4.20 to $4.40 and a sideways bias
Newest analytical day by day charts lean hog, soybean meal and corn futures
