Australia exports lower than 10% of the red meat that it produces
4 March 2024
3 minute learn
FAS/Canberra forecasts Australia’s red meat manufacturing in 2024 to extend via 2% to 480,000 MT (CWE), from the upward revised 2023 estimate of 470,000 MT (CWE), consistent with a up to date US Division of Agriculture (USDA) World Agricultural Data Community (GAIN) file. The speedy enlargement in pork and lamb costs, throughout their quick provide whilst those sectors have been rebuilding their herd and flock numbers, has spawned an build up in shoppers looking for cheaper price meat protein choices and has inspired enlargement in red meat manufacturing in 2023. The sturdy enlargement in red meat manufacturing within the first part of 2023 is predicted to waft into early 2024. Alternatively, just a small general enlargement in red meat manufacturing is forecast for 2024 on account of an expectation that decrease farm animals and sheep costs will filter out via to retail meat costs within the again part of 2023 and into 2024. That is expected to cause the onset of adjustment in red meat manufacturing.
Australia exports lower than 10% of the red meat that it produces, and it imports way over it exports. Australian red meat manufacturing is strongly influenced via red meat import costs, in addition to pageant from different main meat protein assets. The primary competing meat protein assets for red meat are poultry, pork and lamb. From 2019 on the tail finish of a multi-year drought when provide of farm animals and lambs for processing started to dwindle, and the 3 next years to 2022 when provide was once additional decreased whilst farm animals and lamb manufacturers have been rebuilding the nationwide herd and flock numbers, the cost of pork and lamb escalated. Throughout the similar duration, despite the fact that the cost of red meat higher it was once to a a ways lesser level than for pork and lamb, whilst the cost of poultry best very reasonably higher. With this worth dynamic the intake of pork and lamb fell (Word: Australia produces way more pork and lamb than it consumes, so the to be had provide to the home marketplace isn’t a constraint) and was once substituted via higher intake of red meat and poultry.
This shift in worth dynamic during the last 4 years has spurred at the enlargement in red meat manufacturing in Australia. Alternatively, the decline of over 40% in farm animals and lamb costs for the reason that finish of 2022 (related to nearing the of entirety of the herd and flock rebuild and an higher provide of farm animals and sheep for processing) has best simply began to filter out via to the retail costs in the second one quarter of 2023 with the meat worth index marginally decrease and the lamb worth index strong. It’s expected that there can be an important decline within the retail worth of pork and lamb in the second one part of 2023 and into 2024. Such worth changes might trap some shoppers again against pork and lamb and clear of red meat and poultry. With Australia’s red meat manufacturers being extremely dependent upon home intake this will likely cause a shift against moderating red meat manufacturing. Alternatively, because of the lag segment from becoming a member of sows, gestation duration and elevating piglets to marketplace weight, FAS/Canberra anticipates that the present enlargement in red meat manufacturing from the primary part of 2023 will proceed into the second one part and into early 2024 prior to moderating.
The FAS/Canberra red meat manufacturing estimate for 2023 has been revised upward via 11% to 470,000 MT (CWE) from the legitimate USDA estimate of 425,000 MT (CWE). Red meat manufacturing for the primary part
of 2023 is at 234,025 MT (CWE), 8% upper than within the first part of 2022. Even if previous tendencies in most cases point out manufacturing flippantly cut up between the primary and 2d six months of the 12 months, there’s an anticipation that manufacturing can be a bit upper in the second one part of 2023, in part pushed via the weaker than standard imports within the first part of the 12 months.