UK contemporary red meat intake is appearing indicators of decline, with retail volumes down just about 7% year-on-year over the 3rd quarter of this 12 months.
Within the 12 weeks finishing October 2, retail contemporary red meat purchases fell by way of 6.6%, despite the fact that general spending used to be nonetheless 12% up, Kantar information presentations, with the dearer cuts, reminiscent of roasting joints and chops, appearing the largest quantity falls.
The decline in number one red meat gross sales contrasts with rising number one red meat and lamb gross sales, that have noticed costs building up at a decrease fee. Whilst the retail value of red meat used to be up 12.6% within the 12 weeks finishing September 3, lamb used to be up simply 4.1% and red meat 11.5%, Kantar information presentations.
Decrease priced red meat merchandise have noticed enlargement, on the other hand. Within the 12 weeks to October 1, bacon volumes had been up 2.3% 12 months on 12 months and sausage volumes up 1.7%, with mince additionally recording enlargement.
“Expansion in those merchandise may well be from shoppers being very cash aware as they generally tend to have a inexpensive value level. Those cuts also are circle of relatives favourites and engaging which shoppers search for in instances of financial uncertainty,” AHDB analysts Isabelle Shohet mentioned.
Kantar information additionally presentations notable enlargement in foodservice pigmeat volumes. Within the 52 weeks finishing 03 September 2023, pig meat volumes in foodservice grew by way of 7.2%, together with enlargement of 13.2% year-on-year for dine in/at the move, in comparison to a decline of virtually 2% within the takeaway class, in line with AHDB estimates in keeping with Kantar out-of-home (OOH) information.
“Pricing in each retail and foodservice settings stays a very powerful think about figuring out call for for purple meat. Volumes of red meat have declined principally because of a fall in volumes bought according to store in 12-week information and falls in takeaways reminiscent of pizza and Asian cuisines,” Ms Shohet mentioned.
Costs
Ms Shohet mentioned home call for used to be some of the issue’s influencing the hot UK pig value drop, as fewer shoppers buying red meat reduces power available on the market.
The principle motive force, on the other hand, is perhaps falling EU costs, that have fallen for longer and with higher value drops, impacted by way of falling client call for and trade restructuring. EU costs at the moment are setting up a extra standard cut price over GB costs – with the newest EU reference value greater than 30p forward of the similar UK value – which might make EU product extra sexy to patrons, she mentioned.
Emerging imports
Defra’s figures display September UK blank pig slaughterings had been down 11% year-on-year, at 780,000 head, with pigmeat manufacturing 10.2%, down. This adopted year-on-year slaughtering deficits of 6% in August and 15% in July. AHDB’s estimated GB slaughterings for October stay method underneath 12 months previous ranges.
Imports from the EU are, unsurprisingly by contrast backdrop, on the upward push. The newest HMRC UK red meat business information presentations general pigmeat imports had been up 8% year-on-year in August at 65,600t tonnes, with contemporary and frozen red meat imports up by way of round 23% and bacon by way of 12%.
This used to be the fourth consecutive month of year-on-year will increase, despite the fact that general import volumes within the 12 months to August stay underneath 2022 ranges.
Emerging imports had now not translated into vital adjustments within the share of British red meat on retail cabinets in September, on the other hand, in line with the newest Porkwatch survey.
It confirmed that that British product facings had been just about unchanged on July around the classes, with 88% for contemporary red meat, additionally very similar to a 12 months in the past, 55% for bacon, 64% for ham and 77% for sausage. The bacon, ham and sausage figures had been 8-10 proportion issues down on a 12 months in the past, on the other hand.