Tuesday December 5, 2023
GRAINS:
The industry will probably be gazing to peer if China comes into the U.S. wheat marketplace once more nowadays. Their acquire the day prior to this, 440,000 MT, used to be the biggest U.S. wheat acquire in over 3 years. Soy has bounced in a single day after the depressing shut the day prior to this. The bullish climate guys have blown it once more. Yield will probably be down however acreage is up large so Brazil remains to be anticipated to have a big soybean crop. The corn crop may just fall in need of expectancies particularly on the second one crop (diminished acreage) . I’m maximum bullish corn, then bean oil, then wheat, then soybeans. The UDDA grain document is due out Friday at 11:00. I like to recommend conserving all bullish positions. I’m now not proud of the soybean place and it’s going to be the primary to move however I wish to wait till after the grain document. It’s my neatly documented opinion that corn futures have bottomed out.
LEAN HOGS:
Money is known as decrease however now not sharply decrease. Money hogs have been in fact unchanged to raised the day prior to this. Open hobby in hogs used to be up 762 the day prior to this as all contracts closed upper with the exception of Dec. Feb traded over 18,000 contracts with open hobby on this contract precisely unchanged. How does that occur? I’m in search of hogs to attain a very powerful seasonal low they usually could have already finished so. It’s my opinion that red meat call for is making improvements to. It’s my hope that numbers will quickly height. It’s my expectation that the business is culling the herd. After all, it’s my dream that someday China will probably be compelled to begin purchasing huge amounts of U.S. red meat. We stepped into the Jun 110/118 name unfold the day prior to this for handiest 60 issues and we snapped up a couple of Dec 70 requires 15 issues to take into expiration.
LIVE CATTLE:
Open hobby in FC used to be up 568 at the sharply decrease efficiency the day prior to this. Bet what, the budget are going quick on this marketplace. Open hobby in LC edged up by way of 336, not anything to conclude from this. The industry is scared with open hobby in Feb LC places leaping by way of 2,795. Finances are most likely handiest lengthy round 30-35,000 automobiles after peaking out at 120+ in Sep. Packers are in fee they usually gained’t be bidding strongly for farm animals any time actual quickly. I heard rumors in a single day that some feedlots capitulated and bought animals with time for 171. This performs proper into the packers hand. We’ve were given a large mess and it’s going to take a while to get the basics again to bullish. Within the interim, how low can/will the budget and algo buyers push this foolish marketplace? I like to recommend conserving and margining up the Oct 3 approach chance reversal. That’s our handiest margin place. NO ONE, I REPEAT, NO ONE SHOULD BE LONG FUTURES OUTRIGHT. My subsequent play will probably be entering into a lot of Apr LC name spreads. Search for some other selloff nowadays.
For a loose 30-day trial to the night livstock cord ship an e mail to: [email protected]