For 2 weeks in a row U.S. hog slaughter has been under a 12 months in the past (-1%). Our expectation has been sow relief started in earnest remaining Would possibly. If proper the result of liquidation will have to start to display up about now in marketplace hog numbers.
- 12 months thus far U.S. hog slaughter up 0.8% whilst beef manufacturing up 0.5% (carcasses were lighter).
- We proceed to consider USDA projection that the U.S. will produce 600 million extra lbs. of beef in 2024, than 2023 as being off the mark. USDA 2023 at 27,301 million lbs. and initiatives 2024 at 27,910 million lbs. (+2.4%). 12 months thus far precise 0.5%.
- The unlucky a part of USDA over estimation in our opinion is what it does to restrain Hog futures from attaining the costs they’ll in reality be within the months of exact advertising. A number of folks have stated to us your opinion of much less hogs in 2024 is opposite to USDA projection. Truthful statement. Time will inform if the USDA with their huge array of mavens is proper or is a pig man.
- Iowa State College has for many years has finished a calculation of farrow to complete prices and returns. In 2023 it indicated a median lack of $32 consistent with head. The very best annual loss ever (The USDA in reality initiatives we expanded manufacturing?). To this point in 2024 Iowa State calculated trade loss $41.08 in January, $24.25 loss in February. February breakeven 88.84¢ lb. lean. Hog Futures Would possibly till October are actually averaging neatly over breakeven. At the Friday shut Would possibly 93, June 102, July 103, August 103, October 87. Looks as if some benefit. Nonetheless an extended approach to backfill the losses had during the last 18 plus months. We nonetheless consider hog costs will exceed some of these long run months present pricing as hog slaughter declines coupled with ever decrease pork manufacturing.
- Closing 12 months U.S. Red meat Manufacturing used to be 26.963 million lbs. down from 2022’s 28.291 million lbs. (-1.3 million lbs. -5%). In this 5% decrease a 12 months in the past this 12 months thus far pork manufacturing is down -4.3%. If proper U.S. pork manufacturing may well be down 2.5 million lbs. or about 10% in 2024 in comparison to 2022. It’s the identical of about 5 weeks of hog slaughter disappearing.
- U.S. sow slaughter continues to run at prime ranges. Newest week 66,388. Sow slaughter numbers are being suffering from new sow slaughter amenities in Western Canada. Prior to now the ones got here to U.S. sow herd and have been in sow slaughter totals. We predict that U.S. sow herd will probably be down about 100,000 on March 1 USDA record in comparison to December 1. Much less sows clearly much less pigs. If proper sow herd at 5.9 million down from 6.252 million June 1, 2022 (-350,000). We didn’t get smaller as a result of benefit taking.
- Closing week Tyson Meals introduced the closure in their Perry, Iowa hog slaughter facility. Over 1,000 workers affected. We perceive Tyson will endeavour to push the about 8,000 hogs an afternoon to different Tyson amenities in Iowa – Nebraska. An indication of the days with Packers having now not so excellent margins and the want to push all vegetation to environment friendly capability.
- Patrick Fleming of Midan Advertising wrote a very good article on beef high quality. Hyperlink under:
https://midanmarketing.com/weblog/stop-apologizing-for-pork-flavor-is-the-way-forward/