Observations
- USDA reviews Breeding Herd and Marketplace Hog Herd identical as a yr in the past.
- Farrowing final quarter down 2% from a yr in the past with projections of farrowing down 4%.
- March 1 Breeding Herd was once 6,096 – June 1, 6,146. A acquire of fifty,000 within the 3 months. Indicating should be bullish regardless of losses within the $40 in line with head vary in a lot of that quarter?
- Trade should be retaining sows and now not breeding them with farrowing intentions down 4% at the identical breeding stock or possibly breeding herd has declined and that’s why fewer farrowing intentions?
- Illinois should be probably the most successful position to provide swine with 50,000 sow building up (+8%) yr over yr. Iowa down 40,000.
Abstract
- Identical collection of sows however 4% decrease farrowing intentions. Doesn’t line up too smartly.
- Over the following six months file signifies marketplace hog numbers will probably be an identical yr over yr. The important thing level will probably be beef call for. Hog costs have been considerably upper yr in the past with the similar collection of pigs.
Corn
It’s superb what rain and extra corn acres can do to value. On June twenty first the Nationwide Corn Index was once $6.71 On July 1st it’s $5.31 a bushel – a decline of $1.40 in 10 days. Discuss a loose fall. The $5.31 is the bottom within the final yr by means of a vital quantity. Ultimate June Nationwide Corn Index hit $8.00 a bushel. Lowest Money Corn averages are in North Dakota – Minnesota at $4.75 a bushel on July 1.
September corn futures closed at $4.88-bushel final Friday. Corn in Brazil is within the $4.50-bushel vary.
Flipside much less soybean acres then projected result in leap in soybean meal Friday to $420 ton up $16.
Corn acres of 94.1 million acres was once 6% upper than a yr in the past. The 3rd greatest corn planting since 1944.
Soybean reasonable of 83.5 million acres is 5% not up to a yr in the past.
About 4.5 million extra acres in 2023 than in 2022.
Looks as if a superb opportunity that with the common rains, corn may well be within the $4’s for some time. A welcome aid for the swine trade which has been hammered by means of prime feed costs.
Abstract
Hogs and Pigs Document has some complicated knowledge. Identical collection of sows however 4% much less farrowing’s projected. Identical collection of marketplace hogs yr over yr. Hog value was once so much upper final yr. So much extra corn, much less soybeans. Feed costs must proceed decrease yr over yr. It doesn’t matter what USDA Hogs and Pigs Document says we imagine sow herd is liquidating.