26 June 2023
2 minute learn
- U.S. Beef in chilly garage on the finish of Might used to be 525,000 lbs. down 4% from a 12 months in the past. The primary time we have now had decrease red meat garage 12 months over 12 months for a number of months. U.S. weekly red meat manufacturing is round 500,000. Garage 1 week’s manufacturing.
- Sow slaughter for the most recent week used to be 66,861 head. We consider a transparent signal of ongoing liquidation. We estimate anything else over 60,000 per week, transparent signal of liquidation.
- Closing June 1 the U.S. breeding stock used to be 6.168 million. We think this June 1 to be about 100,000 head decrease.
- Iowa – S. Minnesota hog weights proceed to slip. Per week in the past, 278.5 lbs., week ahead of 279.9 lbs. (-1.4 lbs.). A 12 months in the past, 283.6 lbs. (-5.1 lbs. 12 months over 12 months). Decrease weights point out manufacturers prepared to promote. Packers able to shop for. On April twenty fourth Iowa – S. Minnesota worth used to be 67.44¢ lb. June twenty first it used to be 96.97¢ lb. A achieve of virtually $60 according to head. We think the decrease weights we’re seeing are a good signal that the hog worth can proceed upper as packers chase hogs.
- The corn worth has had its gyrations not too long ago. Climate is the massive issue. Seems dry and corn is going up. Rains it is going down, an actual rollercoaster. Two realities U.S. corn exports -33% from a 12 months in the past. There are puts in Brazil as little as $4.32 bushel, it’s also a proscribing issue on U.S. corn worth will increase.
- Liquidation continues in Germany. Westphalia one of the most greater hog states document that during Might their sow herd reduced (-3.4%) to 321,400. Tells us while you believe coming hog delivery in Europe it is nonetheless declining regardless of document hog costs. The entire impact of illness, antibiotic restrictions, exertions, environmental laws, and so on.
- ASF remains to be a consider China. This week we heard of 1 large multistory web page breaking. The ASF continues to push pigs into the marketplace from breaks retaining down costs. The monetary losses of China mega manufacturers are main with their inventory values close to all-time lows. We estimate that China hog manufacturers are dropping $50 according to head occasions 12 million hogs (nation manufacturing) per week = -$600 million per week. Losses like that is pushing liquidation.
Abstract
This coming week the USDA will liberate the June 1st Hogs and Pigs Record. We think to look decrease sow and pig numbers. Let’s hope it is low sufficient to place some optimism into marketplace. Costs are set through supply-demand-optimism or loss of.
