Pig outlook — Lean hog futures bulls nonetheless see some growth

April lean hog futures costs have subsidized down from the January excessive, however that’s simply an ordinary corrective pullback from contemporary excellent good points. In reality, contemporary worth motion at the day-to-day chart displays a bullish flag or pennant trend has shaped. The newest CME lean hog index is up every other 49 cents to $67.34 (as of Jan. 16), marking the 6th achieve within the closing seven days. The index seems to have installed a seasonal low, posted firstly of January. Wholesale red meat costs proceed to turn power, which is spectacular given the rise in provides following closing week’s iciness hurricane.

China’s December red meat imports fall sharply from year-ago

China imported 90,000 MT of red meat right through December, unchanged from November however 54.3% lower than closing yr. For 2023, China imported 1.55 MMT of red meat, down 11.7% from the former yr.

China’s red meat manufacturing reaches file in 2023

China produced a file 57.94 MMT of red meat in 2023, professional information confirmed, after farmers ramped up slaughter right through the closing quarter to chop losses amid an oversupply of pigs. Annual red meat output expanded 4.6% from the former yr, as slaughter rose 3.8% to 726.62 million head. Beef manufacturing within the fourth quarter totaled 14.93 MMT, up 7% from the similar duration in 2022. China’s pork output rose 4.8% to 7.53 MMT, poultry meat manufacturing rose 4.9% to twenty-five.63 MMT and mutton higher 1.3% to five.31 MMT in 2023.

In November, US red meat exports reached new data in key markets

The surge in US red meat exports is pushed through remarkable performances in Mexico, Central The usa, and Colombia. Those figures are according to information from USDA and compiled through the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

Beef exports to Mexico, a number one marketplace, reached a price file in November, marking a 5% building up from the former yr. Export quantity additionally surged through 14%, totaling 100,313 metric lots, making it the second-largest on file, with simplest October 2023 surpassing it.

Central The usa noticed giant enlargement in red meat exports in November, with vital will increase in Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Shipments to the area surged through 35% in comparison to the former yr, attaining 16,565 metric lots, environment per 30 days data.

South Korea additionally skilled really extensive enlargement in red meat exports in November, up through 19% in comparison to the former yr, with shipments totaling 17,406 metric lots.

Oceania witnessed a notable rebound in red meat exports during 2023, and this pattern endured in November, with shipments just about tripling in comparison to the former yr, attaining 6,414 metric lots, which is an excellent 186% building up.

When it comes to manufacturing, exports accounted for 30.1% of overall red meat manufacturing in November, with muscle cuts making up 26.2%. Each figures higher through roughly 1 proportion level in comparison to the former yr.

USDA file: cattle and poultry, international markets and business

Pageant Tightens for Main Beef Exporter

The revised 2024 forecast of red meat shipments through U.S. and EU, the arena’s most sensible two exporters, are just about on par for the primary time since 2015. U.S. and EU exports for 2024 are each revised decrease in comparison to the October forecast. On the other hand, the space is narrowed for those competition as U.S. shipments are revised just one % decrease while EU shipments are revised 3 % decrease. The downward revisions for U.S. and EU exports are pushed through anticipated weaker shipments to China, the arena’s greatest importer.

Persevered susceptible call for through China reduces export alternatives, specifically for the EU. Even if U.S. export volumes to China stay a vital a part of overall exports, U.S. percentage of exports to China is lower than for the EU. In 2022, U.S. shipments to China accounted for 10 % of overall exports, whilst EU shipments to China accounted for 27 % of overall exports. As well as, EU manufacturing has declined lately and is revised 2 % decrease in 2024, tightening exportable provides.

International red meat manufacturing for 2024 is revised down 1 % from the October forecast to 114.2 million lots on decrease output in China, the EU, and Brazil. China manufacturing is revised decrease as endured susceptible call for discourages increasing home manufacturing. EU manufacturing is revised decrease on endured regulatory drive and converting shopper personal tastes. Brazil manufacturing is revised decrease as imports from most sensible marketplace China proceed to weaken. U.S. manufacturing is just about unchanged with declines within the farrowings offset through higher pigs in line with clutter. International red meat exports for 2024 are decreased 2 % from the October forecast to ten.2 million lots because the EU, United States, and Brazil more and more compete for decrease China imports. Even if U.S. exports stay sturdy to many core markets, together with Mexico and Canada, mixture exports are revised decrease towards susceptible import call for from Japan and China. United Kingdom exports also are revised decrease on declining call for from the Eu Union.

China’s 2023 meat imports slip beneath year-ago

China imported 566,000 MT of meat right through December, up 1.6% from November however just about 19% beneath year-ago. For 2023, China imports 7.38 MMT of meat, down 0.3% from the former yr.

The following week’s most probably high-low worth buying and selling levels:

April lean hog futures–$75.00 to $82.00 and with a sideways-higher bias

March soybean meal futures–$350.00 to $375.00, and with a sideways-lower bias

March corn futures–$4.35 to $4.60 and a sideways-lower bias

Newest analytical day-to-day charts lean hog, soybean meal and corn futures