Pig outlook: Lean hog futures costs trending increased

October lean hog futures this week hit a five-week excessive and costs are in an uptrend at the day-to-day bar chart. That means the trail of least resistance for costs within the close to time period is sideways to raised. The newest CME lean hog index is up 35 cents at $86.48. It’s most probably hog costs will likely be supported within the coming month prior to turning decrease into the vacations. Top retail pork costs on the meat counter and emerging fuel costs recommend red meat would possibly change into extra sexy to the patron within the coming months. Hog weights stabilized following the August warmth wave, emerging 3.3 kilos to a mean of 279 kilos remaining week, even though that is still one pound under year-ago.

Weekly US export gross sales for pork, red meat

Red meat: Internet gross sales of 6,200 MT for 2023 had been down 48 % from the former week and 56 % from the prior 4-week reasonable. Will increase essentially for China (2,000 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT), Mexico (1,300 MT, together with decreases of 400 MT), Japan (600 MT, together with decreases of one,000 MT), Hong Kong (400 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT), and Guatemala (400 MT), had been offset via discounts for the UK (100 MT). Exports of 13,200 MT had been down 10 % from the former week and 15 % from the prior 4-week reasonable. The locations had been essentially to South Korea (3,700 MT), China (2,600 MT), Japan (2,100 MT), Mexico (1,000 MT), and Hong Kong (900 MT).

Beef: Internet gross sales of 23,100 MT for 2023 had been down 12 % from the former week and 26 % from the prior 4-week reasonable. Will increase essentially for Mexico (6,300 MT, together with decreases of 200 MT), Canada (4,500 MT, together with decreases of 700 MT), Japan (4,200 MT, together with decreases of 200 MT), South Korea (2,100 MT, together with decreases of 500 MT), and Colombia (1,500 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT), had been offset via discounts for Nicaragua (1,400 MT). Exports of 20,700 MT had been down 32 % from the former week and 28 % from the prior 4-week reasonable. The locations had been essentially to Mexico (7,200 MT), China (3,200 MT), Japan (2,400 MT), South Korea (2,200 MT), and Canada (1,800 MT).

US Customs prevent shipments of prohibited meat from Hong Kong

Final week, US Customs and Border Coverage (CBP) on the Louisville Port of Access intercepted a number of shipments containing red meat no longer declared in packing containers hoping to keep away from detection, in keeping with a press liberate from the government. Between August 20 and August 28, Agriculture Consultants stopped 13 shipments from the similar company in Hong Kong, heading to the similar corporate in Bellerose, New York. Each and every cargo contained red meat pieces, some contained red meat and poultry pieces, and one contained red meat and different prohibited meals. In overall 1,104 kilos of red meat, 298 kilos of poultry, and 88 kilos of prohibited meals had been seized. The receiving company was once notified about their prohibited shipments and the meals was once destroyed.

Beef merchandise from Hong Kong are prohibited because of outbreaks of African swine fever, Classical swine fever, and swine vesicular illness within the area. On account of the presence of those 3 swine illnesses, all red meat merchandise from Hong Kong don’t seem to be authorized with out the acceptable US Division of Agriculture Veterinary Products and services lets in. Moreover, the avian merchandise from Hong Kong also are prohibited on account of Virulent Newcastle Illness and Extremely Pathogenic Avian Influenza.

USDA lowers meat manufacturing and exports

USDA lower its pork manufacturing forecast via 40 million lbs. from remaining month amid a slower tempo of marketings all the way through the 3rd quarter. Red meat manufacturing is now anticipated to drop 1.35 billion lbs. (4.8%) from remaining 12 months. USDA diminished its 2023 pork export forecast 160 million lbs. from remaining month, with shipments now anticipated to fall 13.8% from year-ago. The ones adjustments ended in no adjustment to the 2023 reasonable money steer value, which is projected at $178.50, unchanged from remaining month however up $34.10 from remaining 12 months.

For 2024, USDA made no trade to its pork manufacturing projection, however diminished exports. Red meat manufacturing is forecast to six.6% subsequent 12 months, with exports prone to drop some other 5.0%.

USDA lower its red meat manufacturing forecast 105 million lbs. from remaining month amid “a decrease anticipated tempo of slaughter and lighter carcass weights,” even though it’s nonetheless anticipated to upward thrust 0.6% from remaining 12 months. The red meat export forecast was once lower 125 million lbs., even though shipments are nonetheless anticipated to upward thrust 7.2% from remaining 12 months. USDA diminished its 2023 reasonable money hog value $2.30 from remaining month to $59.90, which might be down $11.31 from remaining 12 months.

For 2024, USDA made no trade to its red meat manufacturing projection, however diminished exports. Beef manufacturing is predicted to upward thrust 0.6% from this 12 months, whilst exports are nonetheless expected to rebound 1.5% from this 12 months’s degree.

The following week’s most probably high-low value buying and selling levels:

October lean hog futures–$80.95 to $86.75 and with a sideways-higher bias

December soybean meal futures–$379.00 to $415.00, and with a sideways-lower bias

December corn futures–$4.73 1/2 to $5.00 and a sideways bias

Newest analytical day-to-day charts lean hog, soybean meal and corn futures