Tuesday December 19, 2023
GRAINS:
If Sep corn futures don’t take out the Nov lows in this transfer, I’ll be taking a look to shop for futures for a brand new long-term bullish place. Keep tuned. The Corn Belt goes to get a drink subsequent week. Climate in Brazil is cooperating simply sufficient to stay the crop going. I proceed to listen to that corn acreage for the second one crop will probably be diminished. I proceed to listen to that U.S. manufacturers will probably be switching acreage to beans or going bean on bean with corn acres down from this yr. I’m looking to forget about the wheat marketplace to save lots of my shoppers cash. Keep out of wheat. Once more, if the corn marketplace fails to take out the Nov lows this week, I’m a purchaser.
LEAN HOGS:
Steadiness within the product within the wake of huge kills and heavy weights is a superb factor, a bullish factor. The cutout was once down .36 with money upper. Futures had been blended however the summer season contracts scored a large double backside. None of this may topic if Friday’s hog & pig does no longer display significant contraction of the breeding herd. Open passion edged up 367 vehicles the day before today. Feb put open passion was once up 1,575 with the 68 strike up 1,220. Investors proceed to nibble at deep out of the cash summer season places for an ASF tournament hedge. No new rec. We’re keeping the Feb 72 calls and a number of bull name spreads in the summertime month choices.
LIVE CATTLE:
Let’s speak about feeders for a minute. I wish to see Jan shut above 22360 to verify a backside. That is just a topic of time, IMO. The index stands at 218.15. Feeders had been up $2 to $5 the day before today at OK Town on 5000 head. Search for money feeders and the index to proceed to grind upper from right here. Given the moisture outlook for the Plains I’m anticipating diminished placements for the following a number of months. Given the truth that the availability of farm animals outdoor the feedyard is document small, I in finding it not possible to be bearish. For nowadays, for a conservative play, glance to shop for Jan FC 235 calls at 90 issues.
- Purchase Jan FC 235 calls at 90. ($450 in top rate outlay)
LC futures noticed an up-tick in open passion the day before today. Overall OI was once up 984 vehicles. There was once no evident characteristic within the choices marketplace that I may just see. The outlook for money steer costs is stable/upper for this week. The display record is smaller with numbers down 11k in TX, down 3k in KS and down 2k in NE. I’m listening to that feedlots are nonetheless complete within the south however farm animals are being shipped south for slaughter. ?? I’m no longer working out this however that’s what I’m listening to. The Dec seasonal low is in position. I’m bullish. My subsequent play (as opposed to purchasing FC calls) could be purchasing Oct LC futures. I’m hoping futures again up for a few days.
Dennis Smith publishes his night cattle cord day by day. For a loose 30-day trial ship an e-mail to: [email protected]
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