USDA – March 1 Hogs and Pigs File… in reality?

2 April 2024

3 minute learn

The USDA March 1 Hogs and Pigs File used to be launched final week. Our observations:

• Iowa State College Farrow to End loss calculation for December is $43.86, January $41.08, February $24.25. Our Farmer Mathematics a mean loss in step with head within the quarter of $36. In 2023 the entire yr the Iowa State calculated loss in step with head is simply over $30.

• Miracle of miracles the USA swine trade defies all foundation of economics with growth of the breeding herd on March 1 in comparison to December 1. The USDA stories 6.016 million on March 1, 5.999 million on December 1. Our trade confronted with document losses expands it doesn’t contract.

The true sure manufacturers can also be discovered within the following states who expanded within the final 3 months:

Illinois is astounding as consistent with USDA it added 40,000 sows in 3 months. We will have to be an trade that loves to lose cash or by hook or by crook calculations of losses are misconstrued.

• USDA has the marketplace hog stock March 1 up 1% from a yr in the past this yr 68.556 million in comparison to a yr in the past 67.990 million up about 570,000 head, if it takes 26 weeks from delivery to marketplace. Simply over 20,000 extra every week. Possibly taking into account the tens of millions of latest citizens within the final yr a 0 impact on in step with capita availability.

In due appreciate to USDA, they just document what manufacturers inform them they’ve in stock. We don’t in reality consider the breeding herd quantity. Sow slaughter used to be operating at considerably top numbers final quarter, gilt gross sales are challenged whilst sow mortality is operating at document ranges. It takes an actual bounce into fable to consider Illinois added 40,000 within the final 3 months within the face of relentless trade monetary losses.

Exact

The USDA has been projecting 2.8% extra Red meat in 2024 than 2023. Let’s have a look at yr so far precise red meat manufacturing.

The information for first 3 months appears to be very small distinction yr over yr. Of notice 2023 is April 1 knowledge whilst 2024 is March 30. Factoring that no distinction. Do you in reality consider if we don’t have any extra red meat within the first quarter, we can have virtually 3% extra the steadiness of yr? Resilient trade increasing in face of traditionally top financial losses.

For the reason that finish of December when yr over yr weights have been 2.6 lbs. heavier till March 23 weights have declined 2.9 lbs. This in itself approach hogs were given extra present in final quarter however in spite of this general red meat manufacturing is the same yr over yr.

• Exports – final week US Red meat Exports have been reported to be 55,300 metric tonnes. A advertising and marketing yr top. Gross sales were operating in low 30,000 every week vary. Thank God for Mexico 32,800 MT gross sales final week, 2d absolute best ever recorded. We perceive from our Mexican contacts their herd is down over 100,000 sows, we think exports to Mexico to stick robust.

• Productiveness – muddle measurement appears to be rising speedy. We think principally because of decrease PRRS prevalence that knowledge turns out to verify. PRRS comes again lets see a productiveness drop. Gene edited pigs that should reduce PRRS turn out to be much less precious as PRRS ranges decline. Have you ever ever spotted some sicknesses appear to run their path i.e., Atrophic Rhinitis, Coronavirus, TGE, APP, no longer certain why however seems they do. Is PRRS on its manner out as primary factor?

Abstract

We’re sceptical of US March 1 breeding herd we think it is if truth be told down 10’s of 1000’s. Not more Red meat this final quarter in comparison to a yr in the past. We stay sceptical USDA is proper with a nearly 3% projection of extra red meat in 2024. We think all hogs in 2024 will likely be promoting upper than their long run months now venture.